Syria: 10 Years On

Layout by Jackie Ng

Once a frequent topic on international headlines, the Syrian Civil War, now having entered its tenth year, has receded from global attention. The United States, Europe, and its Arab allies, having at one point attempted to topple the Syrian government through overt and covert means, have decisively failed, with the Atlantic Bloc having turned towards economic pressure, while the GCC (Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Countries) has undertaken quiet efforts to re-normalize relations. It is now reluctantly accepted that Bashar Al-Assad, President of Syria since 2000, has achieved victory, though it is a hollow victory at best. 

The sporadic uprising that began in 2011 across Syria is judged to be an extension of what has been termed as the ‘Arab Spring’. According to its mythology, the Arab Spring began in the early months of 2011 following the self-immolation of a Tunisian vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi, who, following the illegal confiscation of his business by corrupt officials, lit himself on fire in despair. Bouazizi perished shortly after his suicide attempt, but his actions sparked protests across Tunisia, which quickly transmitted across the Arab World. Millions of people, fed up with their respective dysfunctional autocracies, took to the streets in unison to demand political reform. Tunisia’s regime swiftly collapsed in what became known as the ‘Jasmine Revolution’, and overwhelming pressure led to the resignations of both Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen. Morocco, Kuwait, and Jordan defused unrest through half-hearted reforms, while Libya degenerated into warlordism. The Gulf Countries harshly liquidated the limited protests it saw- culminating in a Saudi-led quelling of a popular uprising in Bahrain (something which the ‘international community’ overlooked). 

In the case of Syria, the arrest and torture of two teenagers for creating graffiti calling for the regime’s downfall in the city of Daraa formed the nucleus of its initial protests, as soon hundreds of thousands of people emerged onto the streets of major cities across the country, with demands ranging from the amendment of martial law to the destruction of the regime. Assad’s formal response to the unrest was highly anticipated, as some observers assumed he would follow the path of Mubarak or Saleh. The President’s inner circle was divided. ‘Reformists’, like Manaf Tlass- a senior officer in the Republican Guard- by his testimony urged Assad to reach some sort of reconciliation with the protests, or resign outright. While ‘hardliners’ like Maher Al Assad- head of the Republican Guard- and Mohammed Zaitounl- former Director of Air Force Intelligence (The backbone of the regime) demanded immediate military action. Indeed, the initial response of the Syrian government reflected this divide. Unlike the commonly parroted narrative that units of the army immediately began firing on protestors, the government’s initial reaction was a mixed bag of empty promises and harsh crackdowns- varying from area to area. On March 31, 2011, Bashar Al-Assad made up his mind. In a speech to parliament, Assad declared that “Syria is facing a great conspiracy”, and vowed to meet the protests head-on. By July a loose coalition of army defectors and volunteers coalesced into the ‘Free Syrian Army’, and clashes with government forces began. It was widely assumed that the now termed ‘Assad regime’ would not see the next year. 

10 years on later this notion has been dispelled. The Free Syrian Army, incessantly claimed to be a centralized, democratic force by its international backers, quickly ripped apart into individual factions vying for power. By 2014, this withering organization was whisked away by the sudden emergence of ISIS, seizing much of the FSA’s territory, only to be later blighted by a combined effort of regional and global powers. What’s left of the FSA- now styling itself the Syrian Interim Government- effectively remains as a Turkish proxy group, with this ‘government-in-exile’ residing in Istanbul and only formally existing in Turkish occupation zones in the north of the country. The only nominally independent rebel organization is a desolate Emirate in the northwestern province of Idlib, ruled by Jabhat Al-Nusra- a formerly Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliated organization which rules its population through a harsh version of Sharia Law. Meanwhile, sections of the Kurdish-populated north have effectively seceded from Damascus, forming the autonomous region of Rojava, which as of now is not in active conflict with the government. 

The regime, though having survived, is stuck in an indefinite state of paralysis. Half of Syria’s 20 million people are either internally displaced or have fled abroad, while those remaining face a staggering poverty rate of 80%. Rebuilding efforts are meek, hobbled by economically stagnant international backers- Iran and Russia- along with American sanctions, while the effects of COVID-19 are incalculable. The regime insists that Syrians who have fled ought to return home, but with nothing to come back to, its diaspora is destined to grow stronger. 

As of now, there is no foreseeable future for the Syria that existed in 2011. Al-Nusra, the FSA, are locked in bitter attritional warfare, with any side lacking the capacity to launch any major offensive operation. The Kurds may currently be at peace with the government, but reintegration efforts have been fruitless. Countries around the world may be quietly re-opening the door to Syria, though the country they now deal with is a mutilated, unrecognizable mess. 

Sources

1. “Syria Sanctions.” U.S. Department of the Treasury, 16 June 2021, https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/sanctions-programs-and-country-information/syria-sanctions. 

2. Al Jazeera. “UAE, Syria Agree on Plans to Enhance Economic Cooperation.” Bashar Al-Assad News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 10 Oct. 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/10/uae-syria-agree-on-plans-to-enhance-economic-cooperation.

3. Sinjab, Lina. “Manaf Tlas: Syrian Regime 'Taking Country to Hell'.” BBC News, BBC, 6 July 2012, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18737185. 

4. “Bashar Al-Assad's Inner Circle.” BBC News, BBC, 30 July 2012, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-13216195. 

5. al-Khalidi, Suleiman. “Syrian Mourners Call for Revolt, Forces Fire Tear Gas.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 19 Mar. 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-idUSTRE72I22020110319. 

6. The New York Times. “In Syria, Crackdown after Protests.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 Mar. 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/19/world/middleeast/19syria.html. 

7. “President Assad's Address to Parliament .” C, https://www.c-span.org/video/?298760-1%2Fsyria-president-bashar-al-assad-speech-parliament. Accessed 26 Oct. 2021. 

8. Chughtai, Alia. “Syria's War: Ten Years – and Counting.” Arab Spring: 10 Years on News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 18 Mar. 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/15/syria-ten-years-of-war.