All About the Margins: Venezuelans are the Key to Winning Florida in 2020
By Connor Matteson ‘22
Nineteen years since a mere five hundred and thirty seven votes handed the presidency to George W. Bush, Florida’s status as the nation’s most critical swing state battleground is still burned into the psyche of many Americans. Though no national election since 2000 has reached quite the same dramatic heights, every successful presidential candidate has carried the Sunshine State since Bill Clinton carried it in 1996. Featuring large, developed cities alongside many miles of rural, agriculture-focused, young, recently-arrived immigrants alongside recently-retired baby boomers, Florida is in more ways than one a microcosm of the country. This diversity, more than anything else, is the reason why elections there are so consistently, nail-bitingly close. Combine this competitiveness with the state’s tantalizing prize of twenty-nine electoral votes, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for both parties heading into next year’s presidential race.
For President Trump especially, there is no path to victory without Florida. If he loses it, then he will essentially have to pull off his 2016 Rust Belt sweep once again while holding every other swing state that that he won the last cycle in order to be reelected. This would be a tall order, especially given that Trump’s approval rating has declined noticeably in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania over the last two years. It would likely only take a minimally politically competent Democratic candidate for that party to begin repairing the damage done to their Midwest firewall.
Line up the data like this, and the path to denying President Trump a second term doesn’t appear to be all that hard. However, if the 2020 election in Florida turns out to especially close, then the Democrats would be well advised to remember that even the smallest swings in voter opinion can have big consequences.
To see evidence of this one only has to look at last years midterms, which went very well for the Democrats nationally. In Florida? Not so much. Andrew Gillum, their gubernatorial candidate, was defeated by Republican congressman Ron DeSantis by less than a percentage point. On top of that, longtime incumbent Democratic senator Bill Nelson was knocked off by outgoing governor Rick Scott by an even narrower margin. Adding to the sting was Gillum’s status as the party’s first ever African-American nominee for a statewide office in Florida; many assumed that this would lead to a groundswell of minority voter turnout in his favor. Post-election analysis revealed that this did indeed happen, but its effect was counteracted by an increase in votes from older, white, recently arrived retirees. The large size of the baby boomer generation, coupled with the fact that a large amount of them reached the age of retirement and moved to Florida over the past decade, allowed the Republican ticket to eke out wins.
This goes to show how even the slightest movements amongst voter populations in a state so closely divided between the parties can be enough to swing elections. In Florida, it’s not large, dramatic swings in public opinion that tell the story, but the raw numbers of different voter groups that turn out and the margins by which candidates are able to win over them. Winning fifty eight percent of a group versus winning fifty five percent of them could make all the difference. In 2018, the decisive group turned out to be white retirees. In 2020, however, that group will likely be a different one: recently-arrived Venezuelans.
Ever since their country began its descent into political and economic meltdown several years ago, a steady stream of Venezuelan asylum-seekers has been flowing into Florida. Due to falling oil prices worldwide, the Venezuela’s state-planned economy has been crippled and the country’s GDP has contracted by a quarter since 2015. Instead of delivering necessary reforms to combat the crisis, President Nicolas Maduro has responded by ramping up state repression, denying the very existence of the emergency, and labelling those who question this version of events as rebels and agitators. The result for Venezuelans has been abject misery, as they have been attacked simultaneously by dire shortages of basic goods, dizzying levels of hyperinflation, and rampant human rights violations by their own government (Brook Larmer, 11/1/18, New York Times Magazine). Unsurprisingly, many Venezuelans have fled their country and settled on a more or less permanent basis in the United States. Out of the fifty states, Florida holds by far the largest amount of Venezuelan asylum seekers and refugees. Conscious of their new obligations as citizens, many members of this 200,000-strong community are tuning into the American political scene for the very first time. Only the Republicans are making a concerted, persistent effort to win them over (Gary Fineout, 2/3/19, PBS).
GOP leaders in Florida have quickly picked up on the similarities between the experiences of many Venezuelan-Americans and that of many Cuban-Americans, the latter of which consistently vote Republican despite Hispanics on the whole leaning Democratic. Cubanos have a large presence in Florida due to their home island’s geographical proximity to the peninsula, making it a natural refuge for those fleeing repression from Fidel Castro’s communist government over the course of the twentieth century. Due to this history, which Republican politicians are only too happy to remind them of, many of them are consistently repulsed by left-leaning politics. It’s not hard to see why the GOP believes that a similar playbook could work with Venezuelans, since the despised Maduro regime also claims allegiance to Marxist principles.
Recognizing this threat, Florida Democrats have largely been in lockstep in their criticism of Maduro, who they insist, regardless of his politics, has done enormous damage to his country and needs to step down. However, some of the national party’s most prominent figures have undercut much of this messaging. Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders refused to condemn Maduro as a dictator when pressed on the issue, as did Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York. Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota went even further, incorrectly characterizing Venezuelan opposition leader and self-declared acting president Juan Guaido as a “far right” figure (in actuality, he is a member of a left-leaning political party). Of course, these are only the opinions of three people, but testimony from Venezuelans in Florida reveals that their words are having an effect.
Helena Poleo, a Florida-dwelling Venezuelan exile and registered Democrat, said that she was “disgusted by some of the statements Democrat lawmakers around the country have made” referring to the remarks of Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, and Omar. She also had a stark warning for her party, adding that “This will absolutely help the Republicans in Florida if this keeps up” (Marc Caputo, 1/30/19, Politico).
As stated before, even the smallest movements among voters in a state like Florida mean everything. If Trump and his allies in the GOP are able to win even a three percent increase in Venezuelan support, then that could make all the difference in a close election. There are of course, many events that could transpire between now and 2020 that could change the electoral calculus, such as an election year economic downturn, which historically has been a death knell for incumbent presidents of both parties. However, if Donald J. Trump is sworn in for a second term on January 20, 2021 after a close, hard-fought race, a decisive vote by Venezuelan-Americans in Florida in his favor is likely to be part of the reason why.
Works Cited
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuela-crisis-resonates-loudly-in-battleground-Florida
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/magazine/venezuela-inflation-economics.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fmagazine&action=click&contentCollection=magazine®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/30/trump-venezuela-florida-policy-1138307
Caputo, Marc, et al. “Trump Venezuela Policy Scores in Florida.” POLITICO, 30 Jan. 2019, www.politico.com/story/2019/01/30/trump-venezuela-florida-policy-1138307.