Implications of the UK Election and Labor Under Starmer

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Before January 28th 2025, the United Kingdom is scheduled to hold its first democratic general election since 2019. Several parties will be running candidates to fill seats in Parliament, but two parties are fighting for the majority: the Conservatives (Tories for short), headed by current Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak, and Labour, led by Barrister and Member of Parliament (MP) Keir Starmer. All 650 seats in the House of Commons will be up for election, and traditionally the monarch appoints the majority party’s leader as Prime Minister. 

A Conservative has held this office since 2010, when David Cameron replaced Labour’s Gordon Brown (despite Conservatives winning a plurality but not a majority). Since then, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss, and now, Rishi Sunak—all Conservatives—have been Prime Ministers. Cameron resigned after Brexit, which he campaigned against, won by public referendum. May resigned in 2019 after having “not been able to deliver Brexit,” (Langfitt 2019) followed by Johnson, who also resigned because of poor economic performance and scandals around his attending parties at Downing Street during COVID lockdowns (Perrigo 2022). His replacement, Truss, was in office for 49 days, the shortest-serving PM ever. At the present moment the best the party has to offer is Sunak, a former businessman who is twice as wealthy and almost twice as out of touch with his constituency as King Charles (Gilchrist 2022). Neither Truss nor Sunak were elected to office, as is reflected in their low popularity among the British public (Helm 2023).

This series of public disgraces has been accompanied by anxieties around the state of the country and economy as a whole. The cost of living in the UK has been a significant concern since 2021, exacerbated by intense inflation in the last year (Partington & Kirk 2022). The country has been plagued by issues to do with public services, as nurses, train operators, delivery drivers, and professors have all held strikes in response to funding cuts. The small-government, private business-oriented, nationalist policies of Thatcher and Major are continually playing out in ways that harm the British public and the legitimacy of the Tories. Yet they continue to dig their heels and, in doing so, their own political graves. In a recent poll of voters, over 70 percent of respondents agreed that “Britain is broken – people are getting poorer, nothing seems to work properly, and we need big changes to the way the country works, whichever party is in government” (Lord Ashcroft Polls 2023).

All of this sets up Labour for a strong showing in the upcoming election. They have held a lead over the Tories in public opinion polling since 2021, a gap which has now widened over 20 percentage points (Poll of Polls 2023). Something to note is that the UK election system works differently than in the US. Parliament has to be dissolved and reelected at least every five years, but the majority government can call for an election to take place at any time before that point. So, the election must take place before January 28th, 2025, and the Tory government will likely wait as long as possible to call one while they remain behind in the polls. The party thus has about a year to try to turn around their position.

Without a massive shift in popularity, though, Labour is poised to perform well in the election. Its new leader is Keir Starmer, a friendly-faced MP serving central London who has positioned himself as the candidate who will bring unity to the party after years of internal strife. This approach is a response to the resignation of Jeremy Corbyn, who led the party during the 2019 election in which Tories added 42 seats to their majority (Kirby 2019). Corbyn, who describes himself as a socialist and sympathetic to controversial figures like Nicholas Maduro and Bashar Al-Assad, was always a cause for anxiety among the more moderate wing of Labour (Ibrahim 2019). Corbyn was also tangled up in allegations of antisemitism within Labour. In response, Starmer put forth a successful motion to remove Corbyn, who is now forced to run as an Independent, from the party altogether (Francis 2023). Thus the face of Labour has been tamed, with the party establishment seeking to distance itself from associations with far-left policy and past controversies. So far, the realignment has been strong: members of the party are standing behind Starmer and his rejection of socialist policy (Landler & Castle 2023). 

While one should be wary of drawing direct comparisons between the political situations of the US and the UK, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Labour has been “Biden-izing” its platform. This means responding to increasingly antidemocratic, socially conservative attitudes of the opposing party by propping up an unthreatening moderate candidate and alienating its more progressive supporters. This development is flawed in multiple senses. Biden is not a case study in unseating an opposition. Despite a victory in 2020, Biden is underwhelming to a large portion of democrats and still generally loathed by most of the right. His approval rating remains low and has been dropping among Democrats (Brenan 2023). There is certainly no guarantee that he remains in office for another term. Labour has a major edge in the polls at the moment, but this should not be confused for a ringing endorsement of a tepid platform. Keep in mind that Britain is not as staunchly defined by only two parties like the US is; left-wing voters who feel put out by Labour may be inclined to turn to the several parties more ideologically left-wing. Labour might achieve a majority in 2024, but maintaining power will depend on if they can define themselves as the absolute solution to the ills brought forth by the Conservatives. 

This possibility becomes less likely the more Labour aligns itself with the interests of economic elites. Labour has notably begun a push to define itself as the new “party of business,” aligning itself with major London industries and increasingly implying that it will work to protect their bottom lines. Yet many of Britain’s economic woes can be traced back to government permissiveness towards large corporations. The idea that everyone “is getting poorer” is incorrect: companies have reported record profits while the working class tightens their belts, and bankers are receiving bonuses higher than have been seen since 2008 (Sultana 2022). The cost of living crisis was not inevitable: it is the result of corporations preying on consumers and extorting them in the shadow of political and economic tumult. The Conservative government actively allowed this to happen, and has finally reached a reckoning, but the British working class is unlikely to recover if Labour is unwilling to take bold action to curb the greed of big business. The aforementioned poll—which finds that the majority of voters desire “big changes”—should be taken seriously and reflected in a platform that stands boldly on the side of those suffering under the crushing conditions of the economy. 

References

Brenan, Megan. 2023. “Democrats’ Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%” Gallup, October 26, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/513305/democrats-ratings-biden-slip-overall-approval.aspx.

Francis, Sam. 2023. “Jeremy Corbyn banned from standing as candidate for Labour party.” BBC, March 28, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65102128.

Gilchrist, Karen. 2022. “Britain’s new PM is almost a billionaire -- with a net worth twice that of King Charles.” CNBC, October 28, 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/sunak-is-almost-a-billionaire-with-a-net-worth-double-king-charles.html#:~:text=Europe%20Politics-,Britain%27s%20new%20PM%20is%20almost%20a%20billionaire%20%E2%80%94%20with%20a%20net,twice%20that%20of%20King%20Charles&text=Rishi%20Sunak%20and%20his%20tech,%C2%A3370%20million%20personal%20fortune

Helm, Toby. 2023. “Rishi Sunak’s approval rating slips as big summer push fails to spark revival.” The Guardian, September 2, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/02/rishi-sunaks-approval-rating-slips-as-big-summer-push-fails-to-spark-revival.

Ibrahim, Azeem. 2019. “Jeremy Corbyn Is a National Security Threat.” Foreign Policy, September 18, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/18/jeremy-corbyn-is-a-national-security-threat/#cookie_message_anchor.

Kirby, Jen. 2019. “Jeremy Corbyn will resign as party leader after Labour’s crushing defeat.” Vox, December 13, 2019. https://www.vox.com/world/2019/12/13/21019478/uk-elections-jeremy-corbyn-labour-resigns.

Landler, Mark and Stephen Castle. 2023. “With Confidence, and Glitter, Labour’s Leader Vows to Rebuild Britain.” The New York Times, October 10, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/world/europe/uk-labour-party-keir-starmer.html.

Langfitt, Frank. 2019. “U.K.’s Theresa May Resigns Acknowledging Failure To Deliver Brexit.” Produced by NPR. All Things Considered. May 24, 2019. Podcast, 4:00. https://www.npr.org/2019/05/24/726784463/british-prime-minister-theresa-may-acknowledges-defeat-announces-resignation.

Lord Ashcroft Polls. 2023. “The State We’re In.” Published by Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC. September 2023. http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-The-State-Were-In-Sept-2023.pdf.

Partington, Richard and Ashley Kirk. 2022. “In numbers: what is fuelling Britain’s cost of living crisis?” The Guardian, February 3, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/03/in-numbers-britains-cost-of-living-crisis.

Perrigo, Billy. 2022. “Boris Johnson Has Resigned. Here’s How He Lost Britain’s Government.” TIME Magazine, July 6, 2022. https://time.com/6194087/boris-johnson-future-ministers-resign/.

Poll of Polls. 2023. “United Kingdom.” Politico. Last updated November 24, 2023. 

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/.
Sultana, Zarah. 2022. “Britain isn’t just facing a cost of living crisis: it’s facing a bonanza of corporate greed.” The Guardian, August 9, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/09/cost-of-living-crisis-corporate-greed-labour-party.