The Future of MORENA: Mexican Party Politics at Play for the 2024 Presidential Election
Fred Ramos/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images
President Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is viewed as a revolutionary figure, among Mexican citizens, with him self-proclaiming his inauguration as the beginning of the “Fourth Transformation.” This era originates from his campaign promises made back in 2018 to eliminate corruption in politics and redistribute this wealth to the people (Nación321 2018, 3-4). Due to the doubts on the legitimacy of President Obrador’s victory, he instilled the Mexican popular consultation process where citizens vote halfway through the president’s single, 6-year term to determine whether they should be recalled or not. All in all, President Obrador’s approval rating has fluctuated but has never reached rates below 60%, peaking in 2019 at 81% (Mexican News Daily 2023, 3). Obrador’s policies center the needs of rural communities, the stimulation of the construction industry, and pensions for the elderly which have all maintained his popularity. With President Obrador’s term coming to an end in late September 2024, the pressure to pick his successor has kicked in to maintain the momentum of the ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA).
With Mexico’s past history of picking presidential candidates through El dedazo or “the pointing finger,” where incumbent presidents handpicked their own successors, there is a lack of precedent for democratic transitions of power (Rodríguez Mega and Romero 2023, 21-26). The past practice led to the dominance of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) for 71 years. Since the end of this practice, the party in power has oscillated between the PRI and the National Action Party but the emergence of MORENA disrupted this trend with its overwhelming popular support. The 2018 General Election was the first time MORENA participated in a presidential election, so López Obrador’s victory solidified MORENA as the dominant party in Mexico. MORENA now has a difficult decision to make on how to follow Obrador’s rule. This struggle is seen widely in democracies, with the United States experiencing a similar phenomenon with former President Obama’s presidency. The effects of Obrador’s popularity are evident with voters expressing disappointment in the emerging presidential candidates and even wishing that they could vote for Obrador again.
The race for MORENA’s presidential candidacy was between two contenders: Claudia Sheinbam and Marcelo Ebrard. Sheinbam was the former mayor of Mexico City, serving from 2018 to 2023, and resigning after her plans to run for office. Her campaign announcement came as no surprise due to her political career under the mentorship of López Obrador. Despite her having Obrador’s support, many thought she lacked the charisma of the current president and had a more radical platform. Her background as a physicist differentiates her from López Obrador and other candidates due to her goals to shift the country to renewable energy while still prioritizing energy independence (Graham and Oré 2022, 12). Ebrard, the latter candidate, was the Secretary of Foreign Affairs for the AMLO administration until 2023 and López Obrador’s right-hand man for years. Their connection dates back to their days as members of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), which they left together for AMLO to eventually found MORENA. Ultimately, the party announced the nomination of Claudia Sheinbam on September 6th. Sheinbam called for unity in response to Ebrard and other moderate party members who claimed the nomination process was unfair (Graham 2023, 16-17). The latter candidate was not present at the presentation of MORENA’s presidential nominee but dismissed rumors claiming he would run as an independent candidate in 2024.
The race for the Mexican presidency is between women for the first time, with the top Mexican parties nominating women for the candidacy. The part that machismo will play in voters’ behavior and attitudes is unclear as this is an unprecedented event. Machismo refers to aggressive or toxic masculinity in Latin American culture where Latino men exert an overbearing attitude towards those who they view as “inferior” (Quintana 2021, 2). To combat this cultural phenomenon, gender diversity standards were implemented through strict gender quotas, with the 2019 constitutional reform calling for gender equality in all governmental branches (Elsesser 2023, 3). Nonetheless, Mexico having its first female president does not guarantee that women’s issues will be at the forefront of their political agenda.
Mexico’s struggle with femicides, with even “progressive” candidates, like Obrador, struggling to counter violent discrimination against women and even sometimes perpetuate sexism by criticizing female protestors. With Sheinbaum’s past experience as mayor of Mexico City, we can preempt her response to this issue. The recent rise in feminist protests can be attributed to disillusioned citizens that expected change from Obrador’s so-called “Fourth Transformation '' in response to increasing rates of femicides. Political inaction emboldened Mexican feminists and led to more “radical” protests throughout the country, the largest in August of 2019. Along with Obrador, Sheinbaum denounced the actions of protests as they marched to the attorney general’s office in Mexico City and shattered windows (Shandin 2020, 5). This response triggered more backlash and pressured Shainbaum’s office and López Obrador’s administration to prioritize the prosecution of femicide and gendered crimes.
According to reports on poll tracker by Americas Quarterly, Claudia Sheinbaum is sitting at a comfortable lead against the Xochitl Galvez (PRI) and Samuel Garcia (Citizens’ Movement Party) (Ramírez 2023). While the election is expected to be competitive, with MORENA’s current popularity it is almost certain that Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidency. The current issues that plague Mexico are public spending and energy policy. During Obrador’s presidency, his investment in elderly pensions is projected to take about 22% of the nation’s budget (Ramírez 2023, 6). Regarding energy, Mexico is in need of “more and cleaner energy” and Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state-owned oil company, is continuously falling into more debt (7). As López Obrador’s understudy, Sheinbaum is expected to continue his stance on relying on strict tax collection to fund government spending and supporting energy companies, like Pemex (8). Nonetheless, her background in environmental science sets her apart with her focus on energy and Mexico’s climate change policies.
References
Elsesser, Kim. “Mexico Set to Elect First Female President after Years of Gender Equality Legislation.” Forbes, October 4, 2023. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimelsesser/2023/10/02/mexico-set-to-elect-first-female-president-after-years-of-gender-equality-legislation/.
Graham, Dave, and Diego Oré. “Mexico City Mayor Eyes History in Bid to Be First Female President.” Reuters, September 23, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-city-mayor-eyes-history-bid-be-first-female-president-2022-09-23/.
Graham, Dave. “Mexico Ruling Party Names Sheinbaum Candidate for 2024, Making First Female President Likely.” Reuters, September 7, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-ruling-party-name-presidential-candidate-with-sheinbaum-favorite-2023-09-06/.
Mexico News Daily. “Polls Show AMLO Maintained Strong Approval Rating in September.” Mexico News Daily, October 4, 2023. https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/polls-show-amlo-maintained-strong-approval-rating-in-september/.
Nación321, “¿Qué Es La Cuarta Transformación de México Que Presume Amlo?” Nación321, December 1, 2018. https://www.nacion321.com/elecciones/que-es-la-cuarta-transformacion-de-mexico-que-presume-amlo.
Quintana, Hugo. “Machismo Culture Must Go.” The Michigan Daily, March 21, 2022. https://www.michigandaily.com/michigan-in-color/machismo-culture-must-go/.
Rodríguez Mega, Emiliano, and Simon Romero. “Un Hito Histórico En México: Dos Mujeres van Por La Presidencia.” The New York Times, September 7, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/es/2023/09/06/espanol/mexico-claudia-sheinbaum-xochitl-galvez.html.
Sandin, Linnea. “Femicides in Mexico: Impunity and Protests.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 19, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/femicides-mexico-impunity-and-protests.