A Glance at the International Politics of the Moon
Layout by Elle Bixby
The tension between Russia and the West is escalating to an unprecedented degree. It started in March 2021 when the U.S. and E.U. announced sanctions against Russia in response to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. With these sanctions, the U.S. government began a journey towards the destruction of any remaining relationship between the West and Russia (Williams et al.). Later in April, a wave of deportations began as the Biden Administration added new sanctions on Russia in response to the interference of the 2020 U.S. election, expelling 10 Russian diplomats from the U.S (Teslova). Poland and the Czech Republic followed suit and respectively removed 3 and 18 Russian diplomats in solidarity with the actions taken by the U.S (Interfax). Russia retaliated and expelled 5 Polish diplomats and 20 Czech diplomats, confirming that this has become the largest diplomatic crisis since the break of the Soviet Union. The instability of the Donetsk region is also a result of the international conflict between the West and Russia (Kramer). With both the Russian army and NATO troops preparing for a possible invasion, the conflict in Donetsk has escalated to a boiling point. It seems that, once again, international politics are trending towards a struggle between Russia and the West, even with a potential to reach hot war.
More interestingly, the divide between Russia and the Western world has also expanded beyond Earth. The pressure placed on Russia in the past decade has led to a larger cooperation with China. In his latest visit to Beijing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the press that Moscow and Beijing were compelled to develop independently of Washington to thwart what he said were U.S. attempts to curb their technological development (Osborn). Shortly after Lavrov's departure, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and Russian Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the joint construction of a permanent autonomous lunar research base (Goswami). Officially named the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), the joint project not only involves different stages of scientific research on the Moon, but also expands the spectrum to current space missions of the two nations, such as China's Chang'e program and Russia's Luna-Resurs-1 Russian Orbital Spacecraft Mission. The MoU serves a significant purpose in that it establishes an officially recognized pathway for China and Russia to share the latest scientific breakthroughs in their exploration of space. With more transparent communications between the two countries, the ultimate goal is to build a lunar base between 2025 and 2040 (Goswami). That being said, the station would not be exclusive to the two nations. As stated in the MoU, the ILRS is "open to all interested countries and international partners, [to] strengthen scientific research exchanges, and promote humanity's exploration and use of outer space for a peaceful purpose” (China National Space Administration).
The purpose of announcing an internationally inclusive program, aside from sharing the progress in lunar exploration, is to tackle preexisting international space agreements created by the United States. The Artemis Accords is an international agreement for lunar and other planetary development that establishes a set of principles in space cooperation (NASA). Though led by NASA, Artemis also encourages nations to share results in their research, help one another in the case of emergency, and has a set of lunar/Mars expeditions on its agenda. The implication of both of these programs is a struggle for global leadership in space. The current geopolitical conflict between the West, Russia, and China makes genuine international cooperation challenging to achieve. Furthermore, in 2011, Former President Obama signed a law to exclude NASA from any partnerships with China. As the frequency of space exploration is rising, the Moon becomes a strategic resource that reflects the current geopolitical interests of each nation.
But why is exploring the Moon so important to China, Russia, and America? Well, the Moon is no longer perceived as a dead rock but a potential resource with rich commercial values. NASA has publicly summarized the resources of the Moon, where water, helium-3, and rare earth metals are rich on the Moon. In terms of capital estimates, Chinese space scientists and engineers have long recognized the economic potential of space resources, including a $10 trillion return on investments from the Earth-Moon zone annually by 2050 (Goswami). Helium-3, an isotope of helium, is theoretically an ideal fuel for nuclear fusion. Today, the technology is close enough to utilize fusion energy that He-3 would become a strategic resource to humanity soon. While He-3 is extremely rare in Earth's natural environment, it is believed to be present in large amounts just on the Moon's surface. Richard Bilder, a professor at Fordham University, gave an example of the potential of fusion energy. It is estimated that forty tons of liquified He-3 brought from the Moon, about the amount that would comfortably fit in the cargo bays of two current U.S. space shuttles, would provide sufficient electrical needs of the United States, or one-quarter of the entire world’s needs, for a whole year (Bilder).
Just the energy value of He-3 alone would be enough to attract expeditions to the Moon, and it already has. In the latest Chang'e 5 lunar mission, the Chinese have brought back 2 kilograms of fresh lunar surface materials for research purposes. Though the amount is incomparable to the ideal amount of Moon mining, it is currently the largest amount of Moon material brought back by humans. But although it seems that the Moon is open for exploitation, the challenge of lunar mining is the lack of jurisdiction. According to the United Nations Outer Space Treaty, no nations can claim ownership of the Moon (NASA). However, whether the treaty could prevent private ownership for Moon mining, commercial ventures, or constructions for excavation is still not clear. Unfortunately, this causes the Moon to become another artifact of geopolitics.
The MoU acts as a continuation of the geopolitical behaviors of countries on Earth. For China, as its frequency of space missions is increasing by the year, it would need to work with other countries besides the U.S. to advance its space goals, especially considering the cessation of space cooperation between China and the U.S., set by former President Barack Obama. For Russia, joining China's lunar base goal means that the two nations can pool resources to create opposition to a U.S.-led space order. Compared to the privatization of space ventures seen in the United States (like with SpaceX and Virgin Galactic), the MoU would also represent a space agreement led by government-owned organizations. By establishing an alternative lunar base development effort, China and Russia are questioning the legitimacy of the Artemis Accords and signaling that they do not view U.S. efforts, both public and private, as the only means for space exploration (Goswami). Whether the MoU's establishment can threaten the Artemis is still to be seen. Until we see a larger scale of international cooperation under the ILRS agreement, the MoU is still an aggressive departure from said cooperation by China and Russia.
References
China National Space Administration. "China National Space Administration." China and Russia Sign a Memorandum of Understanding Regarding Cooperation for the Construction of the International Lunar Research Station, 2021, www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6811380/content.html.
Goswami, Namrata. "The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement." – The Diplomat, For The Diplomat, 20 Mar. 2021, thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-strategic-implications-of-the-china-russia-lunar-base-cooperation-agreement/.
Interfax. "Poland Expels Three Russian Diplomats In 'Solidarity' With U.S." RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, Poland Expels Three Russian Diplomats In 'Solidarity' With U.S., 15 Apr. 2021, www.rferl.org/a/poland-expels-three-russian-diplomats-in-solidarity-with-united-states/31206030.html.
Kramer, Andrew E. "Fighting Escalates in Eastern Ukraine, Signaling the End to Another Cease-Fire." The New York Times, The New York Times, 30 Mar. 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html.
NASA. "Artemis Accords." Principles for a Safe, Peaceful, and Prosperous Future, NASA, 2017, www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html.
NASA. The Lunar Gold Rush: How Moon Mining Could Work, NASA, 2015, www.jpl.nasa.gov/infographics/the-lunar-gold-rush-how-moon-mining-could-work.
Osborn, Andrew. "Russia's Top Diplomat Starts China Visit With Call to Reduce U.S. Dollar Use." U.S. News & World Report, U.S. News & World Report, 2021, www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-03-22/russias-top-diplomat-starts-china-visit-with-call-to-reduce-us-dollar-use#:~:text=March%2022%2C%202021%2C%20at%204%3A36%20a.m.&text=MOSCOW%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Russian%20Foreign,called%20the%20West%27s%20ideological%20agenda.
Teslova, Elena. "Russia Expelling 10 U.S. Diplomats in Retaliation for Sanctions." Anadolu Ajansı, 2021, www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-expelling-10-us-diplomats-in-retaliation-for-sanctions/2211577.
Williams, Abigail, et al. "U.S., E.U. Impose Sanctions on Russia over Navalny's Poisoning." NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 2 Mar. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-eu-set-impose-sanctions-russia-n1259249.